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SVPulse · Macro events

Economic catalyst calendar

Also called: macro calendar, economic calendar, event calendar

An economic catalyst calendar lists scheduled market-moving events, such as FOMC decisions, CPI, PCE and payrolls releases, and options expirations.

Definition

An economic catalyst calendar is a schedule of known events that can move markets: central bank decisions, major economic data releases, and market-structure dates such as options expirations.

Unlike unscheduled news, these events have fixed dates and times, so their expected impact is priced in advance, notably in short-dated implied volatility.

Intuition

Markets reprice when information arrives. Scheduled releases concentrate that arrival into known moments, so volatility and trading activity cluster around them. Knowing the calendar explains why implied volatility for an expiry just after a release is higher, why liquidity thins just before it, and why positioning often shifts into it.

Key US examples: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are released monthly; the Employment Situation report (payrolls) usually lands on the first Friday of the month; standard monthly equity options expire on the third Friday.

How it's calculated

Options let you estimate the move priced for an event. If expiry T1 falls before the event and T2 after it, and the base daily variance is similar, the event's own variance is roughly

σevent² ≈ σ2² T2 − σ1² T1 − σbase² (T2 − T1)

with T measured in years and σbase the ordinary daily volatility, annualized. The implied event move is about S · σevent for one standard deviation. Measuring T in trading days, and giving event days extra weight, makes the estimate cleaner.

How to read it

Before a scheduled release, look at what is priced: the implied event move, the term structure kink around the date, and any related prediction-market odds. After it, compare the realized move with the priced one.

Event calendars also explain quiet periods: with no major releases ahead, short-dated implied volatility often drifts lower.

Release timing matters for data alignment. Many US macro releases, including CPI and payrolls, come out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, before the cash equity open, while FOMC statements are released in the afternoon, so the first reaction to a morning release appears in futures and currencies before cash equities trade.

Common mistakes

  • Overlooking time zones and release times when aligning data.
  • Treating every listed event as equally important; a policy decision and a minor survey are not comparable.
  • Ignoring revisions to prior releases, which can matter as much as the headline.
  • Assuming the priced event move is a forecast of direction.

In Saqrid

SVPulse's Catalyst Calendar lists Fed meetings, major economic releases and options expirations for the next 30 days, with affected tickers.

Open SVPulse.

  • Expected moveThe expected move is the size of price change that options imply over a horizon, usually derived from implied volatility or the at-the-money straddle.
  • Prediction market odds as probabilitiesA prediction market price can be read as an implied probability, but spreads, fees, overround and longshot bias mean it needs adjusting first.
  • Market volatility gaugeA market volatility gauge combines several standardized stress measures, such as implied volatility, correlation and spreads, into one composite reading.
  • IV rankIV rank places current implied volatility within its own past range, from 0 at the period low to 100 at the period high.

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